Avatar 2 Final Box Office Numbers Revealed?

Avatar 2 looks to be on track to make somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 million from domestic ticket sales.

By Chris Snellgrove | Updated

avatar 2 box office

Exactly how well Avatar 2 was going to do at the box office has been a hot topic ever since James Cameron disclosed how much money the movie needed to make to recoup its costs. In an interview with GQ, the director refused to verify how much the budget was (many have estimated around $250 million), saying only it was “very f***ing” expensive and that it couldn’t “break even” unless it was “the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history.” Fortunately for Cameron, the movie grossed $8 million more on Sunday than expected, which means this expensive movie may be on track to make as much as $600 million domestically.

Experts were already estimating that the box office for Avatar 2 would be higher than the average blockbuster due to it premiering during the holiday season. Christmas itself usually brings many families out to the theater, and the day after Christmas brings in even more revenue. The movie is likely to continue getting a holiday boost until January 2, and Avatar 2 got an early start by grossing $64 million this past three-day weekend rather than the $54 million that was initially estimated.

Another reason that the Avatar 2 box office could seriously rise in the coming days is due to good buzz. In addition to the movie getting good word-of-mouth across the internet, the studio will be able to market it as the number-one ranked box office film for several weeks. While box office numbers naturally decline over time, continued buzz and savvy marketing can make each week more profitable than anyone previously estimated and help the movie maintain its top film status.

More good news for Avatar 2 is that, so far, its box office decline has been less severe than predicted. From its opening weekend to the past weekend, it was originally reported that the movie’s box office had declined by 58 percent. Now, it looks like that decline was only 52 percent, which is a positive sign for the movie’s performance and hearkens back to successful holiday blockbusters of yesteryear such as Rogue One, which rode positive holiday buzz in 2016 and shut all other movies out during that time.

avatar 2 box office

Another thing worth noting is the extreme weather we have experienced this past week. Freezing weather across the country made the roads unsafe, and many who might have otherwise gone to the theater stayed home. The sheer fact that Avatar 2 is beating box office expectations and declining less than anyone predicted in the face of extreme weather may be another good sign for the movie’s overall performance.

So far, we have been focusing only on the domestic box office totals for Avatar 2. However, when it comes to breaking even or turning a profit, it may come down to international revenue. The original Avatar made almost $2 billion from international box office sales alone (compared to making just shy of $750 million domestically), and the sequel has made over $168 million internationally so far.

However, whether Avatar 2 ultimately puts up the kind of box office James Cameron and the studio are hoping for is anyone’s guess. For Cameron, this is a true passion project, and he has ambitious plans for many more sequels. But if this film doesn’t make enough money, fans may start referring to The Way of Water by a different name: “dead in the water.”