Indiana Jones 5, with a budget of $295 million, is expected to earn between $60 and $70 million in its opening weekend.
After a number of negative responses from critics and audiences alike at early screenings, it’s looking like Indiana Jones 5 is in big trouble. Early box office projections are estimating a debut of between $60 and $70 million for the James Mangold-helmed legacy sequel, according to a recent write-up from The Hollywood Reporter. While these figures would represent an enormous financial windfall for the average person, they pale in comparison to the estimated budget of nearly $295 million, signaling a significant loss for the studio.
After premiering several weeks ago during the 76th annual Cannes Film Festival, Indiana Jones 5 made headlines for taking home the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any film in the franchise. Currently, The Dial of Destiny touts a miserable 51 percent score against the first four films’ 93 percent, 76 percent, 84 percent, and 77 percent, respectively, leaving many fans to wonder exactly why it seems so difficult to construct a worthwhile Indiana Jones outing in the 21st century. Several critiques have called attention specifically to the film’s generic storyline, stiff performances, and overuse of CGI when describing why exactly the fifth installment in the film series fails to live up to its predecessors.
While box office projections are just estimations of the real numbers and don’t necessarily account for the true outcome of the film’s earnings, these projections certainly don’t look good for Indiana Jones 5, as the film would need to outperform the estimations nearly five times over in order to squeak out a profit. While some films, such as James Cameron’s recent second installment in the Avatar film series, Avatar: The Way of Water, have famously outperformed their expected box office projections, it seems highly unlikely that The Dial of Destiny will escape its fate.
Realistically, the film is more likely to mimic the result of Black Adam than Avatar 2, which famously bombed at the box office so hard that Dwayne Johnson attempted to mind-wipe the entire world into forgetting the film ever existed in the first place like he was one of the Men in Black. With an estimated budget of $260 million and a box office projection of only $58-$68 million, Black Adam faced even worse projection odds than Indiana Jones 5. Of course, after tallying up the worldwide box office and streaming revenue combined, Black Adam eventually did turn a profit for Warner Brothers, but the damage of its horrendous opening week had already sealed the deal.
It is possible for Indiana Jones 5 to make a profit for Disney, who bought out Lucasfilm and its associated properties back in 2012, though the odds are stacked against them. One method Disney could employ in order to straighten the rudder on this Harrison Ford-led film would be to engage with a ton of press to market the movie, a feat made impossible by the lack of Late Night shows currently airing due to the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike.
For now, we’ll just have to see what time has in store for Indiana Jones 5. After all, audiences have certainly turned out for other legacy sequels with equally spotty reviews in the past, meaning the film has a chance to beat the odds yet.